IBM -- PowerGraphs™



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    • Today's date: Thursday, May 15, 2008    week #: 20


    CORPORATE PROFILE





    COMPANY NAME:     International Business Machines Corporation
    REGISTERED MARKET VALUE ($-millions):     $156,174.1
    COMPANY PROFILE:     International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) was incorporated in the State of New York on June 16, 1911, as the Computing-Tabulating-Recording Co. (C-T-R), a consolidation of the Computing Scale Co. of America, the Tabulating Machine Co., and The International Time Recording Co. of New York. Since that time, IBM has focused on the intersection of business insight and technological invention, and its operations and aims have been international in nature. This was signaled over 80 years ago, in 1924, when C-T-R changed its name to International Business Machines Corporation. And it continues today: IBM is the largest information technology company in the world, the world's largest business and technology services company, the world's largest consulting services organization, the world's largest information technology research organization, and the world's largest financier of information technology.  ... More...Click for latest exchange-available Annual Report   


    FUNDAMENTAL- AND TECHNICAL- ANALYSIS





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    MONTHLY POWER-INDEX (PI)





    This graph shows the Power-Index for each Month of the year, based on IBM's adjusted stock prices since 1997.
    A Power-Index is generated for each Month of the year based on the actual, average Price Changes for IBM during that Month in previous years.
    The average Monthly Price Changes are then filter-weighted by distance in the past and frequency of profitability over the past 10 years.
    So the values in these graphs represent a conservative estimate of the expected percentage price change in the future for IBM for the specified Month ... based on IBM's price changes during that Month in the past.

    Compare this expected graph to the current, actual graph below it ...

    • How well does it match the expected historic pattern ??
    • Look at the relative prcie-change movement, not exact values.
    • i.e. . . . is a similar Power-Wave setting up this year . . .
    • The closer the pattern matches, the better the odds of the Power-Index Graph below predicting the future.

    MONTHLY Power-Index

    1
    1
    2
    -4
    1
    3
    1
    4
    1
    5
    6
    -1
    1
    7
    0
    8
    9
    -1
    5
    10
    5
    11
    0
    12

    2007     Actual Monthly Percent Price-Changes so far this year

    2
    1
    2
    -6
    1
    3
    8
    4
    3
    5
    0
    6
    0
    7
    0
    8
    0
    9
    0
    10
    0
    11
    0
    12


    MONTHLY Heat-Map

    This Heat-Map visually shows the Historical Monthly %Price-Changes for IBM.
    This makes it easy to see which months are best to buy & sell IBM, based on its past.
    Just look for a concentration of vertical green columns to buy and hold IBM through.
    Make sure you're not holding IBM through a concentration of vertical red columns!




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    WEEKLY POWER-INDEX (PI)





    This graph shows the Power-Index for each Week of the year, based on IBM's adjusted stock prices since 1997.
    A Power-Index is generated for each Week of the year based on the actual, average Price Changes for IBM during that Week in previous years.
    The average Weekly Price Changes are then filter-weighted by distance in the past and frequency of profitability over the past 10 years.
    So the values in these graphs represent a conservative estimate of the expected percentage price change in the future for IBM for the specified Week ... based on IBM's price changes during that Week in the past.

    Compare this expected graph to the current, actual graph below it ...

    • How well does it match the expected historic pattern ??
    • Look at the relative prcie-change movement, not exact values.
    • i.e. . . . is a similar Power-Wave setting up this year . . .
    • The closer the pattern matches, the better the odds of the Power-Index Graph below predicting the future.

    WEEKLY Power-Index

    1
    1
    0
    2
    0
    3
    0
    4
    0
    5
    0
    6
    0
    7
    8
    -1
    9
    -1
    0
    10
    0
    11
    1
    12
    0
    13
    0
    14
    15
    -2
    1
    16
    2
    17
    0
    18
    1
    19
    0
    20
    0
    21
    22
    -2
    0
    23
    24
    -1
    0
    25
    1
    26
    0
    27
    0
    28
    0
    29
    1
    30
    0
    31
    1
    32
    1
    33
    0
    34
    0
    35
    1
    36
    37
    -2
    38
    -1
    0
    39
    2
    40
    1
    41
    0
    42
    1
    43
    1
    44
    2
    45
    3
    46
    1
    47
    0
    48
    0
    49
    50
    -1
    0
    51
    0
    52

    2007     Actual Weekly Percent Price-Changes so far this year

    0
    1
    2
    2
    3
    -3
    1
    4
    2
    5
    0
    6
    0
    7
    8
    -1
    9
    -7
    3
    10
    0
    11
    2
    12
    13
    -1
    2
    14
    15
    -2
    0
    16
    7
    17
    2
    18
    3
    19
    2
    20
    21
    -3
    0
    22
    0
    23
    0
    24
    0
    25
    0
    26
    0
    27
    0
    28
    0
    29
    0
    30
    0
    31
    0
    32
    0
    33
    0
    34
    0
    35
    0
    36
    0
    37
    0
    38
    0
    39
    0
    40
    0
    41
    0
    42
    0
    43
    0
    44
    0
    45
    0
    46
    0
    47
    0
    48
    0
    49
    0
    50
    0
    51
    0
    52


    WEEKLY Heat-Map

    This Heat-Map visually shows the Historical Weekly %Price-Changes for IBM.
    This makes it easy to see which weeks are best to buy & sell IBM, based on its past.
    Just look for a concentration of vertical green columns to buy and hold IBM through.
    Make sure you're not holding IBM through a concentration of vertical red columns!

    NOTE:     Weeks where the percent-profit value is highlighted signify weeks where an Ex-Dividend Date occurred.



    Weekly DIVIDEND Heat-Map

    This Heat-Map visually shows the Historical Dividends Paid (in cents) for IBM.
    This makes it easy to see how dividend values for IBM have changed over time.
    Rising dividends over time is usually a good sign of a successful company.

    NOTE:     Weeks where the dividend value is highlighted signify weeks where the Ex-Dividend Date occurred.




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    PRICE-CHARTS





    Look at this week now and in the past years and ask yourself the following questions:

    • is the current chart-pattern in a position that represents a good buying opportunity?
    • does the current chart-pattern match the past during this week?
    • have the next few weeks in the past been good?

    6-Month Daily Chart







    3-Year Weekly Chart







    10-Year Monthly Chart



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    PRICE~VOLUME RELATIONSHIP





    This graph shows the relationship between price movement value (absolute value of Power Index) and volume levels.
    Each bar's number represents the relative value versus the other bars' values in the same series (price-movement or volume levels).
    This can be used to see how IBM's price-movement and volume react to changes in one another ...

    Look at the relationship between price-movement and volume then ask yourself the following questions:

    • do high volume weeks coincide with large price movement weeks?
    • is there a volume pattern that preceeds larger price movements?
    • for instance: does price move after volume starts increasing from a low level?

    WEEKS 1 - 26
    7
    4
    0
    3
    0
    3
    0
    4
    0
    4
    0
    3
    0
    4
    7
    6
    7
    5
    0
    3
    0
    4
    7
    5
    0
    3
    0
    3
    14
    5
    7
    3
    14
    6
    0
    4
    7
    4
    0
    3
    0
    4
    14
    5
    0
    2
    7
    3
    0
    2
    7
    4
     1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26 
    		 
       that week's relative Price Change
       that week's relative Volume


    WEEKS 27 - 52
    0
    3
    0
    4
    0
    5
    5
    4
    0
    1
    5
    2
    5
    3
    0
    2
    0
    3
    5
    3
    11
    6
    5
    5
    0
    2
    11
    6
    5
    5
    0
    4
    5
    5
    5
    5
    11
    6
    16
    5
    5
    4
    0
    3
    0
    4
    5
    3
    0
    3
    0
    2
     27  28  29  30  31  32  33  34  35  36  37  38  39  40  41  42  43  44  45  46  47  48  49  50  51  52